LONDON : The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, released today, projects that under the current policy scenario, based on existing government measures and not future climate commitments, global oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century. This marks a 13 percent increase from 2024 consumption levels. The agency also estimates that overall energy demand will grow by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15 percent rise from current figures.

This revision represents a retreat from the agency’s previous forecasts, which had predicted an earlier peak in fossil fuel demand. Chris Wright, the energy secretary during the Trump administration, sharply criticized the earlier forecasts, calling the previous expectations of declining demand “nonsensical.”

The IEA, whose analyses shape energy policy decisions worldwide and whose funding is led by the United States, last employed a “current policies scenario” in 2019 before aligning its forecasts with global net-zero pledges.

The report highlights significant expansion in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, forecasting a 50 percent surge in export capacity by 2030, as projects approved in 2025 come online. LNG demand is projected to climb from 560 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 880 billion in 2035 and 1,020 billion by 2050, growth largely driven by the booming energy needs of data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The IEA also notes that global investment in data centers could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent annually on oil supplies.