Washington: According to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment presented to lawmakers, the report highlights escalating global missile risks, regional tensions in South Asia, and ongoing instability in the Middle East.

Testifying before the United States Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that countries including Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are advancing missile technologies capable of carrying nuclear and conventional payloads. She warned that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme could potentially evolve to include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with the capability to reach the United States.

Gabbard further noted that these nations are closely monitoring US missile defence strategies to refine their own capabilities and assess Washington’s deterrence posture. The intelligence community projects a sharp increase in global missile threats, estimating that the number of missiles capable of targeting the US homeland could exceed 16,000 by 2035, up from more than 3,000 currently.

The inclusion of Pakistan in the assessment has drawn mixed reactions from analysts. Washington-based scholar Shuja Nawaz described it as consistent with previous US policy trends, including sanctions and restrictions on Pakistani entities. However, he argued that Pakistan’s missile capabilities, such as the Shaheen-III, are generally assessed to have a range of under 2,800 kilometres and are primarily intended as a deterrent against India, not the United States.

Another analyst, Michael Kugelman, noted that while Pakistan may not welcome being grouped with countries considered adversarial by the US, it was not singled out independently. He added that the current US administration has otherwise maintained relatively positive messaging toward Islamabad.

Beyond state actors, the report highlighted persistent threats from militant groups in South Asia, warning that such groups could exploit instability and ungoverned spaces to rebuild their capabilities. The region continues to pose “enduring security challenges,” particularly due to tensions between India and Pakistan, which remain a potential flashpoint for nuclear conflict.

The assessment also referenced ongoing tensions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where clashes and concerns over militant safe havens continue to strain relations. Pakistan has called on the Taliban to sever ties with groups targeting its territory, while the Taliban has denied harbouring such elements.

In a broader regional context, the report observed that several countries, including Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, Türkiye, and the UAE, are increasingly using military tools, proxy forces, and strategic aid to influence conflicts and advance their interests.

Addressing developments in the Middle East, Gabbard said Iran’s government remains intact but weakened following recent military operations. Despite this, Tehran and its allied groups continue to pose a threat to US and allied interests in the region. US officials also indicated that Iran could respond to military pressure by targeting Gulf allies or attempting to disrupt key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

The hearing also revealed internal divisions within US intelligence circles, including the resignation of a senior aide, as policymakers debated the evolving threat landscape and the implications of recent military actions.