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Europe faces costly winter ahead as war disrupts global LNG supply

Europe’s already challenging task of refilling gas storage for the next winter has become far riskier and more expensive.

MUSCAT : The conflict in the Middle East, now in its sixth day, has shaken global energy markets, with traders increasingly worried about disruptions to key shipping routes and export infrastructure. European natural gas futures surged as much as 13 per cent on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s pullback as markets priced in the possibility of prolonged supply interruptions.

At the centre of the concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route through which a large portion of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass. With tanker traffic reported to be nearly at a standstill and uncertainty surrounding plans to ensure safe passage through the strait, energy markets have reacted strongly.

Europe is particularly vulnerable at this stage of the year. The region relies heavily on gas storage to meet winter heating and electricity demand. However, stocks are expected to end the current heating season well below normal levels after prolonged cold spells depleted reserves. This means Europe will have to purchase significant volumes of gas during the summer to refill storage facilities across the continent.

The challenge has been compounded by disruptions in the Middle East. Earlier this week, European gas prices climbed to a three-year high after Qatar shut down Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, following an Iranian drone attack. The shutdown, combined with shipping bottlenecks near the Strait of Hormuz, has raised fears that global LNG supplies could tighten sharply.

While Asia remains the primary destination for Middle Eastern LNG shipments, the interconnected nature of global energy markets means disruptions in one region quickly affect others. Traders now view the risk as global rather than regional, as LNG cargoes can easily be diverted depending on demand and price signals.

The tightening supply has already triggered a scramble among buyers. Taiwan has secured LNG shipments for April from sources outside the Middle East, while Thailand is also seeking additional cargoes to safeguard its energy needs.

Europe is bracing for a challenging winter as disruptions in the Middle East threaten global LNG supplies. The conflict has caused European natural gas futures to surge, with concerns centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for LNG shipments. With depleted reserves, Europe faces the daunting task of replenishing gas stocks amid rising prices and supply uncertainties.

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